The Knicks Double Secret Lineup

It's that time of year folks. At 17-37, another lost season winds down for the embattled New York franchise, desperately trying to find its way out of the darkness. Coming off of a devastating double-overtime loss to the lowly Atlanta Hawks, times are tough for Knicks fans. Since it is a bit too early to fire up mock drafts and begin picking the new, young, savior, I figured, instead, it would be better to highlight something good the team already has. 

The Knicks entered the season with an extremely awkward group of players. Filled with too many bigs vying for playing time, and not enough shooting, it was always going to take a different type of cohesion to make this team succeed. Something counter to what most modern NBA fans know. When you draft R.J. Barrett to, hopefully, be your future star, it's essential to understand what kind of player he is, and what you should surround him with to succeed. Barrett, a guard with upper echelon physical tools, as well as great feel around the basket, is a player who needs the ball in his hands to succeed because his biggest weakness is perimeter shooting. Sticking him next to fellow ball-dominant players like Elfrid Payton, Julius Randle, and Marcus Morris, was an admission that the front office didn't understand its personnel whatsoever. But Barrett wasn't the only young Knick fans were hoping to watch develop in what was supposed to be a transition season. Needless to say, the others, Frank Ntlikina, Mitch Robinson, Damyean Dotson, and Kevin Knox, to name a few, have sort of been left to their own devices, to fend for scraps when given the opportunity. 

In 2019-2020, per NBA.com, the New York Knicks have put 449 different 3-man units on the floor at least once, some good, many...not so good. As you sift through the data, a specific trend begins to emerge; the team plays better when a few specific players are on the floor. Those players are the aforementioned, raw 21-year-olds, Frank Ntilikina and Mitch Robinson, as well as 25-year-old Damyean Dotson. But why? The Knicks continue to play the older, established, players. Surely they know best right? Why should we believe what the (granted, limited) data is telling us about these three players? What are they doing well, and what can they do even better going forward? Let's take a look. 

Offense

When you construct a team the way the 2019-2020 Knicks have, it is important to work to find edges outside the typical, standard ways. The Knicks don't have elite, do-everything playmakers, they don't have multiple, top tier, 3-pt shooters. If they try to win by replicating what other, more talented, teams are doing, they will lose. What Ntilikina, Dotson, and Robinson represent, is a willingness to do the extra, small things that help a team win. Things that don't get picked up in your average box score. One example of that is getting out in transition---

Say what you will about Ntilikina's offense, but he is always looking to push the pace. Whether it is off of a made or a missed basket, Ntilikina pushes it like no other player on the Knicks. He understands the advantage that starting the offense, before the defense is allowed to set, gives the Knicks, and is constantly seeking it out. Dotson is right there with him, and the two make a great two-man team in the open court. Another way they mitigate their disadvantages is by being extremely willing movers, and screeners. 

No two guards, aside from maybe Wayne Ellington, move and screen for their teammates as often as Ntilkina and Dotson. The two of them are always looking to help the team. Whether it's a back-screen off of the ball to free space for a teammate, or Dotson bolting from corner to corner to make multiple defenders turn their head and process that action, they are always on the move. Sometimes it's alright to be less active off the ball, and there are even times when it's preferred. LeBron James prefers his teammates to be exactly where he wants them because he does not need an advantage created for him, he is just fine doing the heavy lifting. But the Knicks don't have LeBron James. They need to out-scheme and outwork the other team. No two players represent this willingness to outwork the other team more than Frank and Damyean. And Robinson, who has had maybe three offensive plays called for him all year, is no slouch in the effort department himself, averaging 4 screen assists per 36 minutes of play, second on the team behind Taj Gibson. 

Sometimes it seems as if these three are in their own little world, and it is a beautiful thing to watch. This play may not seem like much, but it's very symbolic of what makes these three tick. If Dotson doesn't spring into his cut after the entry pass, 76ers defender Matisse Thybulle could hang around and clog the paint. And if Robinson, who sets a sub-par screen on Ntlikina's man here, doesn't slip the screen quickly or possess his natural, freakish, athleticism, to make him such a lob threat, Embiid would have an easier time contesting Ntilikina's floater. Nevertheless, all of that stuff does happen, and it all flows together so naturally, it's a wonder they don't run action like this more.

These plays work because the parts fit together to create something better for the team. Ntilikina is a good, willing passer. Robinson, a willing screener, and tremendous finisher around the rim. Knox's defender has to abandon him in the corner because if he does not it's a free two points for the Knicks. Ntilikina reads him diving in and whips the pass quickly and accurately to set up an open corner 3. On a team that has so often seemed mired in isolation, these three have brought cohesion, selflessness, and effort to the offense. 

Defense

This side of the ball isn't as hard to figure out. On a team with Julius Randle and Bobby Portis manning the interior, outworking your teammates isn't particularly difficult or impressive. However, together, these three haven't just been a small upgrade over their teammates, but a formidable foe for opposing offenses throughout the league. In the 139 minutes Ntilikina, Dotson, and Robinson have played together, the Knicks have a 94.9 DRTG (they're allowing 94.9 points per 100 possessions). For context, the Milwaukee Bucks lead the NBA, far and away, with a 101.5 DRTG. Now, I don't think that this is the best defensive trio in the league---the sample size is still relatively small and I'd imagine a large percentage of their minutes have come against opposing benches---but, still, to perform at a rate that would be, easily, the best defense in the league, regardless what other two players share the court, is meaningful. 

Robinson, averaging almost 4 blocks per 36 minutes, has proven himself to be an elite rim protector. Having a 7 footer with crazy length who can jump out of the building makes everyone's life easier. If you get beat, he can be there to cover for you like few others in the league can. But not all Robinson lineups thrive defensively, and none have excelled like the ones with Ntilikina & Dotson, so what makes them so special?

It starts with Ntilkina, who is one of the most naturally gifted defenders in the league. At 6'4, Ntilkina's wingspan is a shocking 7'1 (for comparison, 6'9 Julius Randle has a wingspan of 7'0), which widens the range of opposing players he is capable of guarding. He is quick enough to hang with any guard, and his length allows him to hold his own against bigger wings. To go along with that, his instincts and feel are impeccable. Pick any game and watch him on defense, and you will see him seamlessly shift from player to player, in perfect rhythm with the opposition. And, more than anything, he works his ass off, sometimes seemingly the only one trying to stop the other team from scoring. Watch how natural he makes guarding four different players in one possession look---

Outstanding. This stuff happens every game. And while Dotson isn't as naturally gifted as Robinson, or as polished as Ntilikina, he more than holds his own in the effort department. Rarely taking a possession off, always fighting around screens or closing out on a shooter, Dotson works just fine as second banana on the perimeter to Ntilikina. In today's NBA, the two most important defensive skillsets are protecting the rim and defending the 3, should we be surprised that these 3 succeed so fantastically on defense?

Conclusion

While the data is limited, it is overwhelmingly obvious to me that these three, when on the court, have a positive effect on the Knicks team. The most promising takeaway is that there is still a ton of room for improvement. Robinson, who mostly serves as a dunker and offensive rebounder, is relatively limited on offense and still seeks out blocks far more often than he should on defense. Every so often an opponent will drive and shoot a contested, off-balance, layup, only for Robinson to jump out of his shoes seeking the weakside block, leaving his man on an island for the offensive rebound. It is extremely frustrating. The next step in his evolution will be learning to read those plays better and trust his teammates to do their job so he can stick to boxing his man out. Ntilikina can improve his finishing, shooting, and ball-handling. He also seems to let the variance of his jumper affect his mindset too much. When his shot is falling, he seems far more active and in tune with the game, at least offensively. Bringing that intensity and confidence each night will do him wonders. And Dotson, while not exactly bad in any area, could make a mini-leap anywhere. 

Most importantly, all three have already shown abilities that make them valuable assets next to other star players. While it would certainly be nice, the Knicks don't necessarily need any of them to improve all that much. Maybe Barrett becomes the star they were hoping he would in a few years? Maybe they find a star in Cole Anthony or LaMelo Ball in next year's draft? Maybe Giannis decides he wants to take his talents to the Mecca in 2021? All three of Robinson, Ntilikina, and Dotson have proven they can play next to a more prototypical, ball-dominant star and thrive in their supporting role. Teams need these guys. They need a Dotson who will run around screen after screen and shoot 3's at an efficient rate. They need a Robinson to clean up the glass on both ends, protect the rim, and put the ball in the basket any time he's asked. They need a Ntilikina, who will work until he can't anymore to stop the other team from putting the ball in the basket. Who will do whatever he can to help put his teammates in the best spot to succeed on both sides of the ball. Teams need these guys. And the Knicks have them.

Conclusion? The Knicks may not be as far off as it seems. 

Grizzles @ Knicks 1/29/2020

"Look how young these Grizzlies are."

Those were words spoken by Clyde Frazier, the New York Knicks acclaimed color commentator, with 9:51 remaining in the second quarter. I'm not sure if Clyde knew the knife he was sticking into the hearts of whatever Knicks fans continue to torment themselves each night, but for some reason, this felt worse than anything that's happened yet. Maybe it's because it was another lifeless effort from our beloved home team. Or maybe it was because the Grizzlies of 2020 directly contradict everything about the Knicks of 2020.

Coming off a 33-49 season, the Memphis Grizzlies, like the Knicks, weren't supposed to be good this year. They did, however, have a reason to be excited. Despite tying with two others teams for the 7th worst record in the NBA, the lottery Gods smiled upon the Grizzlies and allowed them to pick 2nd, one spot ahead of our New York Knicks. With that pick, they took Ja Morant. The Knicks, of course, followed by taking R.J. Barrett. This is where the similarities die. Because folks, the two teams who played basketball last night were not headed in the same direction. They didn't have similar agendas. Hell, they may as well have not been playing the same sport.

If you're reading this, you probably know the gist of what happened---Mike Breen opened the broadcast talking about his excitement to watch exactly one player; Ja Morant. And then the Grizzlies crushed the Knicks in their own backyard, embarrassed them even, all while Breen talked about how the Knicks were showcasing players to trade. And, as if all that weren't bad enough, the Grizzles drove the Knicks into such a deep abyss of frustration that Elfrid Payton started a fight because he was offended the Grizzlies were trying too hard at the end of a blowout.

I concur Dennis.

This game wasn't really all that interesting. It was like plenty of other Knick games this season. Too many, in fact. It did, however, serve as a giant metaphor for the waste this season, 49 games in, has become. I will attempt to detail why.

The Elfrid Payton Conundrum

Elfrid Payton is a 25 yo PG averaging 9 PPG, 6.5 A/G, 4.5 R/G, & 1.5 S/G. For a floundering team, mired in mediocrity, this is probably a bright spot, right? Wrong. Payton often shows flashes of a player capable of being a valuable contributor to any NBA team. Some may remember just last season he became the fifth player in NBA history to record a triple-double in five straight games. But Payton becoming a Knick has allowed me to look behind the curtain, and what I saw was a player whose stats were misleading. Very misleading. Here is one of the first possessions from last nights game:

This is a very common setup in today's NBA. Bullock & Morris are both good-great perimeter shooters, and Taj Gibson, while not much of a 3-pt threat, has a respectable mid-range jumper and is an offensive rebounder who needs attention. While having Gibson & Randle together is not ideal, having Randle screen for the ball-handler, while Gibson roams the baseline and Morris & Bullock space the floor, is about as good a setup as you can get with those four players. The problem is, the defenders do not particularly care about Payton, who has shown zero ability to score outside of ~three feet. What this leads to, when Payton controls the ball, is many possessions where Payton dribbles a lot, other players' defenders hover closely to them, and eventually Payton either forces up a bad shot, or he passes to someone late in the shot clock who is forced to shoot or create. This explains Payton's assist total.

This may sound bad, or harsh, but the truth is Payton's ball-handling ability, athleticism, and above average vision, actually make him a fine creator in the p&r. Sure, it would be nice if he added some sort of floater so defenders have to respect him, but he makes up for it with his ability to sometimes put his teammates in advantageous positions. The problem, however, is that this only tells a small part of the story. You see, because while Payton does tend to dominate the ball and over-dribble, there is another large segment of the game in which the Knicks attempt to put the ball in the hoop and Elfrid does not have the ball in his hands. And that, to put it lightly, is an abject disaster.

Take a look at Kevin Knox, the 20 year-old, 9th overall pick, from Kentucky, who has struggled mightily this year. In this play, Payton skipped it from the elbow extended to Knox on the elbow extended opposite him, who made a quick read and beat his man off the dribble, only to find himself quickly suffocated. The main help defender in his way? #12, Ja Morant. Morant is able to dive deep into the paint because the truth of the matter is, if Knox kicks it out to Payton, the Grizzlies simply wouldn't care. They'd view that as a win. Because he can't hurt them from there.

In this play Julius Randle makes a nice spin into the lane. Dillon Brooks has decided that he is going to leave Damyean Dotson, who is a well above-average shooter, to help, because if he doesn't it will result in a Randle/Mitch Robinson 2 on 1 at the basket. Randle makes the smart play and kicks it out to Brooks' man at the top of the key. This is good basketball. The result?

Dotson goes to catch & shoot, but finds another man has rotated over to help Brooks. In every offense this results in a swing to the left elbow extended and an open 3. Every single one. But look at what Payton has done. He's in absolute no mans land, moving away from where Dotson would always swing it to, because he knows he's useless out there. So the Knicks advantage is, once again, conceded.

Now let's compare these to a possession later in the game, when Payton is out of the game:

Dennis Smith Jr. receives a screen from Mitch Robinson and decides to penetrate on the opposite side (a move becoming more & more common in today's NBA). Look at how much room there is in the paint! Dotson's man is hovered on him, unwilling to help, because Dotson is a legitimate 3 pt threat---he had already knocked down two 3's in just a few minutes of play. With Mitch Robinson, the ultimate lob threat, being shadowed at the ft line, this leaves Brandon Clarke as the sole defender to contest Dennis Smith's layup, only to do so he has to leave Bobby Portis alone in the left corner. This is what great teams do. They use the strengths of their personnel to put themselves in advantageous situations. This is good basketball. Bobby Portis is no sharpshooter by any means, but the Knicks would take a wide-open Portis corner 3 every possession of the game if they could.

(If you have a super sharp memory, you'll remember that for some reason Smith saw Clarke approach him in the paint, didn't make the easy kick-out pass to Portis, and eventually settled for a contested 18 footer. PLEASE ignore this. DSJ being bad at basketball doesn't change the point.)

Look, I know basketball isn't football. Football requires 11 players working together as one to form a well-oiled machine. Basketball allows for much more individual greatness. Every team doesn't need to be the 2014 Spurs. But in 2020, when teams are as smart and knowledgeable as they've ever been, this shit does matter. And it creates a domino effect. Take a look at this possession, which tells multiple meaningful stories the Knicks should be paying attention to:

This play started with a bit of a weave at the top of the key, something the Knicks showcased more of early in Mike Miller's (more on him later) tenure as Knicks Head Coach, but, for some reason, have gone to less and less over the past few weeks. The result was Kevin Knox getting a bit of an advantage on his defender with a hand-off in motion, making another nice, quick read and penetrating into the paint. Once again, Damyean Dotson's man is unwilling to leave him in the corner. Open corner 3's are bad for a defense. Smart teams know this. With the advantage created, as well as Knox's size, and Robinson's crazy athleticism, this should be an easy 2 on 1 at the rim with Knox deciding whether he should throw the lob or finish himself based on the rim protectors reaction. Instead, the play is made slightly more difficult because a second Memphis player, Ja Morant, cheats off his man (Payton), and cuts off Robinson's angle to the basket. Knox forces a lob into a tight window, Robinson misses badly, and because of multiple Knicks players spotted up in the corners, the play results in Memphis getting the defensive rebound and having numbers the other way.

I could do this for hours. Every possession with Payton on the floor is the same. He doesn't try to mitigate his weakness by moving or screening. He rarely shoots open 3's when the ball comes his way. Gaining an advantage on an NBA defense is hard. The Knicks, with Payton on the floor, tend to cede their advantages which hurts their overall efficiency. This is value (or, detriment) that doesn't show up in box scores. Or, if it does, it shows up in the stats of players not named Elfrid Payton. Would Kevin Knox be more efficient if he got better looks around the rim? How much have his poor absolute results affected his mindset and confidence? Would Julius Randle be better regarded if he was the only sub-par shooter who required the ball in his hands? What this leads to, with Payton on the floor, is a decision: let him dominate the ball, and do what he does best, or try and make team basketball work with him off the ball, and watch the rest of the team, essentially, play 4v5. It's the ultimate conundrum. He is incapable of playing off the ball, but not a good enough shot creator worthy of dominating the ball. You're damned if you do, damned if you don't.

Mike Miller Rotations

Earlier I mentioned the 2014 San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs of that year were a beautiful, well-oiled machine, operating at the peak of their powers. Over the years, Head Coach Gregg Popovich had, as most greats do, adapted to evolved methods of thinking and greater knowledge, and evolved his system with it. The Spurs, as a franchise, had the constants of Popovich, and Hall of Famers Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker, but the Spurs, as a system, were always fluid. They reached this apex by trying new things, and not being afraid to fail. I bring this up because the 2019-2020 New York Knicks have been anything but fluid, and have not shown the slightest willingness to evolve their method of thinking, nor an open-mindedness to try new things.

Miller's system is simple, there are two units; starters, and reserves. The starters start the game and the third quarter, and each starter plays their first shift of varying lengths. Typically Taj Gibson is the first one out of the game at the six minute mark or so, and then, over the following six minutes, Payton, Bullock, Morris, and Randle follow. The reserves are, typically, all in the game by the last minute of the first quarter or, at the very least, the start of the second. They play their shift and one by one are replaced by the starters until, once again, around the six minute mark of the second (or fourth quarter), all five starters are back on the floor and they finish the half. I call this the 2-1-2 rotation system. The starters play two shifts, while the reserves play just one. There has been very little change or deviation from this system. Sure, every once in awhile (like last night), a player gets in foul trouble, or Miller will have Mitch Robinson play two shifts in a half, but, essentially, that's how it is.

This is problematic for a multitude of reasons. For starters, it is extremely arrogant for any team, nonetheless a team as bad as the Knicks, to think they have it all figured out. No team is perfect, least of all this years Knicks. It takes a special kind of delusion to try the same thing over and over, continuously fail, and expect to eventually achieve different results. We are so far past illogical it's almost sad. This is a billion dollar organization. I'm genuinely curious what Knicks' brass thinks the teams current record would be had they committed to youth at the start of the season and named Frank Ntlikina, Damyean Dotson, RJ Barrett, Julius Randle, and Mitchell Robinson the starters. I mean seriously, how much worse could it get? And if it was worse (narrator voice: it wouldn't be), at least they'd know what they have, or didn't have, in the guys they've spent top draft picks on the last few seasons. Isn't that all you really want in a lost season?

And let's say we ignore that aspect of it, the roboticness of the rotations are just as bad. Does Mitch Robinson need to play next to Julius Randle or Bobby Portis for 100% of his minutes? Seriously? Why not try Marcus Morris or, gasp, Kevin Knox as a stretch four? Robinson absolutely eviscerates other teams when he operates in space, why don't they let him? Even Payton, who I just spent about 10,000 words destroying, would prosper in a lineup with Dotson, Bullock, Morris, and Robinson. The paint would be wide open! Mix up who plays with who, figure out who works well together and who doesn't. Who cares if it fails? We already know the current iteration of the Knicks is failing. Why are they so afraid of the unknown?

The second part of this that is detrimental to the franchise is it reduces the range of input the bench players are allowed to contribute to the game. Let's say Frank Ntilikina comes in at the 3 minute mark of the 1st quarter, and plays his best shift of the season. He's locking down the opposing teams' best guard, and he's running the offense smoothly in his, granted unique, way. What is his ceiling for that game? In today's game, no player is going to play 15 consecutive minutes. It's not like he's going to finish the half. Maybe his shift will go 11 minutes instead of 9, but with how Miller rotates, it's impossible for a bench player to player more than 22 or 25 minutes.

And this goes the same, only inversely, for the starters. Payton, Randle, and Morris essentially fall in to playing 32 minutes a night, because they're guaranteed their two shifts a half. Neither the starters, nor the reserves, see much fluctuation in their shifts, regardless of their output. On the contrary, Ja Morant played three shifts in each half last night. Miller's rotation strategy removes any incentive for any of the players. Why should Payton or Randle change? Miller is going to play them anyway. The teams' transition defense last night was absolutely embarrassing, but nothing changed. If I had a nickel for every time Miller called a timeout frustrated with the starters play, only to come back out with the same five guys, I'd have a shit load of nickels. Instead all I have is a little bit alcohol, and a whole lot of frustration.

Free The Kids

This all brings me to the main point that just about every Knicks fan at this point is on board with. It's (well past) time for the team to hand the reigns over to the kids. I won't talk about Frank, despite how maddening we---the team, the media, a certain subset of fans---have treated him. Because maybe he did have a groin injury last night, and maybe there are some teams interested in Dennis Smith Jr.'s very untapped potential. But while last night was a catastrophe, there still was a glimmer of light peaking its head through the clouds.

Mitchell Robinson is an absolute stud. I know he's limited offensively. I know he chases blocks too much. I don't care. You can't teach some of the stuff he has. His height, length, and leaping ability is scary. He got an offensive rebound in the first quarter by just leaping and grabbing it over the opposing center. He then followed that by pivoting and dunking it over the same guy for two points that wouldn't count because there was a foul on the play. I mean look at this.

This is Mitch swiping at an entry pass to Brandon Clarke after he was switched on to the perimeter following a screen. He almost steals it, but doesn't. Why is this play of any significance, you ask? I'll tell you why. Because Clarke, with the much smaller Dotson on him, catches the ball and quickly pivots, setting up an easy layup. Only Robinson takes one step in, leaps, meeting him at the backboard, and swats the ball away. I'm not sure it should be possible to get a block from this position, but apparently Robinson defies the impossible.

Speaking of Dotson, how was he getting DNP's again? He's clearly better than Bullock, who has been a decent addition when his shot is falling. But Bullock was hurt to start the year! What genius thought playing Wayne Ellington over Dotson made any sense at all? Dotson has a propensity to take contested long 2's, but besides that I'm not sure he has a weakness. He has a solid handle, a smooth jumper, which has an enormously positive effect on team synergy and spacing, and he works his ass off on defense. Frank-Dotson-Mitch has been the Knicks best three-man unit since the start of last season. Think about that! And yet, we do everything possible to hinder their progress and ability to develop as much as possible. What did we as fans do to deserve this?

And finally, Kevin Knox. Look, Knox has been bad, no one is going to get an argument from me. He gets lost on defense, he's shown very little ability to create for others, his shot, while sometimes good, is inconsistent (probably due to his tendency to fade even on open jump shots). But he's 20 years old. TWENTY. And he's 6'8 with great length, the strength to body up bigger power forwards, and agility to stay in front of small forwards. These things reveal themselves every once in awhile, and they did last night. While he had a make from 3 and a few nice takes, it was actually the defensive side of the ball that impressed me. He used his length a number of times to make good, smart contests of opposing shots to force them into difficult, low efficiency looks.

I mean look at those arms! Knox has a long way to go if he's going to be the #1 (or even #2) option the Knicks hoped he could be out of college. In today's NBA you just have to be so well-rounded to be an elite player. He needs to improve his handle, his decision-making, his vision with the ball in his hands, his movement off the ball, and his shooting mechanics. I'm not throwing in the towel on him, these are all fixable, and he has plenty of time. But if he isn't going to make that offensive leap, and he's destined to be a spacer who, hopefully, only improves his shooting, then he has to find other ways to contribute. Using his size & length and becoming an above-average wing defender is certainly a good place to start.

Knox, like last night's game, is actually a solid metaphor for the state of the Knicks. They have a long way to go, but there is something there. The Knicks just have to try to get it out. As the late, great, Scott Hutchison once wrote, "there is light, but there's a tunnel to crawl through,". The Knicks have, seemingly, been crawling for an eternity, and continue to find themselves back at the beginning. But what they need to realize is that they actually haven't been trying at all. The crawl back to relevance requires humility, a willingness to admit that they haven't been doing things the right way, and an open-mindedness to try new things, even if it means more failure. The trade deadline is a week away. I don't know who will be here and who won't, I only know that Knicks fans everywhere are long past ready for the franchise to stop kidding themselves, and start trying to do things the right way. The fans are ready to crawl. Let's hope the Knicks are too.