The Knicks Double Secret Lineup

It's that time of year folks. At 17-37, another lost season winds down for the embattled New York franchise, desperately trying to find its way out of the darkness. Coming off of a devastating double-overtime loss to the lowly Atlanta Hawks, times are tough for Knicks fans. Since it is a bit too early to fire up mock drafts and begin picking the new, young, savior, I figured, instead, it would be better to highlight something good the team already has. 

The Knicks entered the season with an extremely awkward group of players. Filled with too many bigs vying for playing time, and not enough shooting, it was always going to take a different type of cohesion to make this team succeed. Something counter to what most modern NBA fans know. When you draft R.J. Barrett to, hopefully, be your future star, it's essential to understand what kind of player he is, and what you should surround him with to succeed. Barrett, a guard with upper echelon physical tools, as well as great feel around the basket, is a player who needs the ball in his hands to succeed because his biggest weakness is perimeter shooting. Sticking him next to fellow ball-dominant players like Elfrid Payton, Julius Randle, and Marcus Morris, was an admission that the front office didn't understand its personnel whatsoever. But Barrett wasn't the only young Knick fans were hoping to watch develop in what was supposed to be a transition season. Needless to say, the others, Frank Ntlikina, Mitch Robinson, Damyean Dotson, and Kevin Knox, to name a few, have sort of been left to their own devices, to fend for scraps when given the opportunity. 

In 2019-2020, per NBA.com, the New York Knicks have put 449 different 3-man units on the floor at least once, some good, many...not so good. As you sift through the data, a specific trend begins to emerge; the team plays better when a few specific players are on the floor. Those players are the aforementioned, raw 21-year-olds, Frank Ntilikina and Mitch Robinson, as well as 25-year-old Damyean Dotson. But why? The Knicks continue to play the older, established, players. Surely they know best right? Why should we believe what the (granted, limited) data is telling us about these three players? What are they doing well, and what can they do even better going forward? Let's take a look. 

Offense

When you construct a team the way the 2019-2020 Knicks have, it is important to work to find edges outside the typical, standard ways. The Knicks don't have elite, do-everything playmakers, they don't have multiple, top tier, 3-pt shooters. If they try to win by replicating what other, more talented, teams are doing, they will lose. What Ntilikina, Dotson, and Robinson represent, is a willingness to do the extra, small things that help a team win. Things that don't get picked up in your average box score. One example of that is getting out in transition---

Say what you will about Ntilikina's offense, but he is always looking to push the pace. Whether it is off of a made or a missed basket, Ntilikina pushes it like no other player on the Knicks. He understands the advantage that starting the offense, before the defense is allowed to set, gives the Knicks, and is constantly seeking it out. Dotson is right there with him, and the two make a great two-man team in the open court. Another way they mitigate their disadvantages is by being extremely willing movers, and screeners. 

No two guards, aside from maybe Wayne Ellington, move and screen for their teammates as often as Ntilkina and Dotson. The two of them are always looking to help the team. Whether it's a back-screen off of the ball to free space for a teammate, or Dotson bolting from corner to corner to make multiple defenders turn their head and process that action, they are always on the move. Sometimes it's alright to be less active off the ball, and there are even times when it's preferred. LeBron James prefers his teammates to be exactly where he wants them because he does not need an advantage created for him, he is just fine doing the heavy lifting. But the Knicks don't have LeBron James. They need to out-scheme and outwork the other team. No two players represent this willingness to outwork the other team more than Frank and Damyean. And Robinson, who has had maybe three offensive plays called for him all year, is no slouch in the effort department himself, averaging 4 screen assists per 36 minutes of play, second on the team behind Taj Gibson. 

Sometimes it seems as if these three are in their own little world, and it is a beautiful thing to watch. This play may not seem like much, but it's very symbolic of what makes these three tick. If Dotson doesn't spring into his cut after the entry pass, 76ers defender Matisse Thybulle could hang around and clog the paint. And if Robinson, who sets a sub-par screen on Ntlikina's man here, doesn't slip the screen quickly or possess his natural, freakish, athleticism, to make him such a lob threat, Embiid would have an easier time contesting Ntilikina's floater. Nevertheless, all of that stuff does happen, and it all flows together so naturally, it's a wonder they don't run action like this more.

These plays work because the parts fit together to create something better for the team. Ntilikina is a good, willing passer. Robinson, a willing screener, and tremendous finisher around the rim. Knox's defender has to abandon him in the corner because if he does not it's a free two points for the Knicks. Ntilikina reads him diving in and whips the pass quickly and accurately to set up an open corner 3. On a team that has so often seemed mired in isolation, these three have brought cohesion, selflessness, and effort to the offense. 

Defense

This side of the ball isn't as hard to figure out. On a team with Julius Randle and Bobby Portis manning the interior, outworking your teammates isn't particularly difficult or impressive. However, together, these three haven't just been a small upgrade over their teammates, but a formidable foe for opposing offenses throughout the league. In the 139 minutes Ntilikina, Dotson, and Robinson have played together, the Knicks have a 94.9 DRTG (they're allowing 94.9 points per 100 possessions). For context, the Milwaukee Bucks lead the NBA, far and away, with a 101.5 DRTG. Now, I don't think that this is the best defensive trio in the league---the sample size is still relatively small and I'd imagine a large percentage of their minutes have come against opposing benches---but, still, to perform at a rate that would be, easily, the best defense in the league, regardless what other two players share the court, is meaningful. 

Robinson, averaging almost 4 blocks per 36 minutes, has proven himself to be an elite rim protector. Having a 7 footer with crazy length who can jump out of the building makes everyone's life easier. If you get beat, he can be there to cover for you like few others in the league can. But not all Robinson lineups thrive defensively, and none have excelled like the ones with Ntilikina & Dotson, so what makes them so special?

It starts with Ntilkina, who is one of the most naturally gifted defenders in the league. At 6'4, Ntilkina's wingspan is a shocking 7'1 (for comparison, 6'9 Julius Randle has a wingspan of 7'0), which widens the range of opposing players he is capable of guarding. He is quick enough to hang with any guard, and his length allows him to hold his own against bigger wings. To go along with that, his instincts and feel are impeccable. Pick any game and watch him on defense, and you will see him seamlessly shift from player to player, in perfect rhythm with the opposition. And, more than anything, he works his ass off, sometimes seemingly the only one trying to stop the other team from scoring. Watch how natural he makes guarding four different players in one possession look---

Outstanding. This stuff happens every game. And while Dotson isn't as naturally gifted as Robinson, or as polished as Ntilikina, he more than holds his own in the effort department. Rarely taking a possession off, always fighting around screens or closing out on a shooter, Dotson works just fine as second banana on the perimeter to Ntilikina. In today's NBA, the two most important defensive skillsets are protecting the rim and defending the 3, should we be surprised that these 3 succeed so fantastically on defense?

Conclusion

While the data is limited, it is overwhelmingly obvious to me that these three, when on the court, have a positive effect on the Knicks team. The most promising takeaway is that there is still a ton of room for improvement. Robinson, who mostly serves as a dunker and offensive rebounder, is relatively limited on offense and still seeks out blocks far more often than he should on defense. Every so often an opponent will drive and shoot a contested, off-balance, layup, only for Robinson to jump out of his shoes seeking the weakside block, leaving his man on an island for the offensive rebound. It is extremely frustrating. The next step in his evolution will be learning to read those plays better and trust his teammates to do their job so he can stick to boxing his man out. Ntilikina can improve his finishing, shooting, and ball-handling. He also seems to let the variance of his jumper affect his mindset too much. When his shot is falling, he seems far more active and in tune with the game, at least offensively. Bringing that intensity and confidence each night will do him wonders. And Dotson, while not exactly bad in any area, could make a mini-leap anywhere. 

Most importantly, all three have already shown abilities that make them valuable assets next to other star players. While it would certainly be nice, the Knicks don't necessarily need any of them to improve all that much. Maybe Barrett becomes the star they were hoping he would in a few years? Maybe they find a star in Cole Anthony or LaMelo Ball in next year's draft? Maybe Giannis decides he wants to take his talents to the Mecca in 2021? All three of Robinson, Ntilikina, and Dotson have proven they can play next to a more prototypical, ball-dominant star and thrive in their supporting role. Teams need these guys. They need a Dotson who will run around screen after screen and shoot 3's at an efficient rate. They need a Robinson to clean up the glass on both ends, protect the rim, and put the ball in the basket any time he's asked. They need a Ntilikina, who will work until he can't anymore to stop the other team from putting the ball in the basket. Who will do whatever he can to help put his teammates in the best spot to succeed on both sides of the ball. Teams need these guys. And the Knicks have them.

Conclusion? The Knicks may not be as far off as it seems.